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8 November

By Amir El Araby

Category: Technical Analysis

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AUDUSD: Head &Shoulders with sloping neckline; target with explanation

Since topping out in the 0.8125 territories, the AUDUSD pair has slipped dramatically, offering one of the most accurate classical reversal patterns over daily studies.

AUDUSD bears have drawn head and shoulders top pattern with a complex dual head as seen on the provided chart below.

Additionally, the pattern was traced with a sloping neckline, which is one of the rare types of this reversal structure and it has a different method to scientifically calculate the target. 

The educational images below explain how the dual head and the sloping neckline could be drawn.

Calculation of the target for H&S pattern with sloping neckline:

If the neckline slopes down, then it is possible that it will never intersect the price line following the right shoulder, so we use an alternative method of determining a breakdown price. In this case we use the support level between the left shoulder and the head and calculate the target price as the difference between that support level and the center peak's high.

Consequently, we see chances for visiting 0.7385 boundaries where the scientific target of this complex exists. 

Assessing indicators, Chaikin oscillator moves below zero level presetting a case of momentum weakness, while SMA50 and Vortex reflect the strength of the recently established bearish trend. 

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Amir El Araby

Financial advisor with 18 years’ experience in the technical analysis studies for FOREX, Commodities and Indices. Amir El-Araby worked as a mentor for many companies and institutes, where he presented new methods for trading in the financial market. Amir is a member of ESTA (Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts).